Plausible State-Specific Plans and Recommendations to Avert COVID-19 Community Transmission

Abstract

Current article emphasizes upon the strategy to increase the number of tests at the state-level so that majority of the suspected cases could be traced out, isolated and quarantined in order to contain them from becoming a source of infection and coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) dissemination. The objective of the recommended testing is to contain the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Lessons learnt so far points to the fact that earlier the identification and isolation of infected person, lesser are the chances that it would spread. Considering an example of Maharashtra which has reported cases above 20,000 in the last 7 days with 90,000 tests carried out each day with a test positive report (TPR) of 22%-25%. So, assuming that even if 20% of a particular locality in Maharashtra is infected, then at this rate, we shall be able to isolate only 20,000 each day, while rest of the untraced cases already existing in the locality would pass it on to other people, before being isolated. The only solution to stop this cycle is to outnumber the rate of growth of new cases by increasing the number of tests at a very fast pace. In order to contain the infection, our testing rate has to be much higher than the case growth rate.