Modelling of Potential Distribution of Helichrysum nuratavicum Krasch (Asteraceae) in Uzbekistan

Abstract

The strong impact of climate change on the distribution of plant species onEarth is currently of great interest in the field of biogeography. In thisresearch work, the endemic Helichrysum nuratavicum plant from the flora ofUzbekistan was selected to be studied. For current and future climaticscenarios for H. nuratavicum, the real and potential areal was assessed basedon high-precision environmental data, geographical distribution, ecology,data of the National Herbarium of Uzbekistan (TASH) and the results ofscientific field research, annual precipitation and average temperature ratiosusing Diva-GIS, Maxent program. In this case, the distribution was assessedon the basis of environmental factors, and the areas with the most optimalconditions were predicted according to climate change scenarios, thedistribution of the species rcp 8.5. Based on the climatic scenario, and alsothe maps representing the distribution of the species were created. Theresults of our research have shown that areas with an optimal climatic indexof the geographical area of the species will expand to the south in all futurescenarios